Posted by
mgraves on Saturday, September 30, 2006 8:32:16 PM
Pakistan's ISI behind Mumbai bombings this summer
Pakistan is a mess. They've got nuclear weapons, a long-running feud with another nuclear power, India, over Kashmir, and a "President" who is very close to completely losing control over the country.
The intelligence community has made a deal with the Taliban, behind Musharraf's back, to cede control of Waziristan to the Taliban. The North West Frontier Province, never governable at the best of times is said to be going the same way.
Pakistan has a long history of political turmoil: swinging from so-called democracy to dictatorship to "benevolent dictatorship". Pakistan has fought (and lost) three wars with India over the Indian territory of Kashmir. Pakistan's intelligence community has also funded, trained and directed terrorism against India in Kashmir. The intelligence community established and supported the Taliban against the Northern Alliance.
If you think the CIA undermines President Bush, that's nothing next to the behavior of the ISI. Pakistan is too weak to stand another war against India. If it comes to blows again, India will win again, (The U.S. would have to support India b/c they are a democracy and the U.S. is desperately trying to keep India out of the PRC camp) and Pakistan could not count on the U.S. to do much.
Pakistan is a powder keg. The citizens agitate for shari'a and shari'a has been granted legal status at the local level. It is only a matter of time before one of the most stalwart allies of the U.S. in the war on Islamic fascism is chased from power. Musharraf never had much control over the intelligence community--he was a military man who seized power through the military--and he is increasingly isolated from the military that has kept him power.
The ISI is more interested in subverting Kashmir through Lashkar-e-Taiba, and may provoke war with India. The ISI is also interested in consolidating power to the north, and they do not see that happening through a democratic Afghanistan, but through a resurgent Taliban.
Pakistan is only an ally of the U.S. so long as Musharraf wields power. He seems to be a democrat at heart, or he recognizes that he did not have the tools to control Pakistan himself, and he has gradually ceded authority on the local level to local entities. These local entities are not allies of the U.S. The ISI is not an ally of the U.S. Increasingly, Pakistan's army is not an ally of the U.S.
I'm an incurable pessimist. Pakistan is as good as lost.
Hopefully, Afghanistan does not go the same way.
Afghanistan does have the benefit of Hamid Karzai, a much more charismatic and popular man, than Pervez Musharraf.
With the Taliban being given free rein in northern Pakistan, Afghanistan faces an existential threat. The U.S. cannot lose Afghanistan without appearing weak and inviting attack. The U.S. must not lose Afghanistan.